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Real- Time Prediction VAR and Bayesian Statistic

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Data driven models are used to make real-time predictions, and are based on vector auto regression (VAR) models. The Bayesian statistical model is credited for establishing a reliable probability design. The model suggest we are predictable, and our response to new information is bait in what is described as reasonable expectations (Schorfheide, Song, 2014). VAR is an econometric however used in management to observe multiple inter dependencies across a series of different times (Schorfheide, Song, 2014). The model best fits economic circumstances because of its macro view. Global economics are influenced by anything from Presidential elections to rumors of war, unto a drought in a Country that is an international agricultural supplier. Beyond its economic usage VAR is used by companies to observe data across several time series to determine sales based on weather conditions, or industry surplus, the announcing of CEO, or even in the event of a corporate scandal. Schorfheide, F....
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Confidence level Type II error

Confidence level determines the sample size and is based on the level of confidence the researcher sets for the study (Spiegel ,1975). This level of confidence determines the statistical likelihood that the researcher will observe the phenomenon if it were true in the sample (Spiegel ,1975). Whereas to null the hypothesis is not necessarily a statement of the theory being false but can be actually an error (Hanneman, Kposowa, & Riddle, 2013). Type II error pertains to a false null in the study that could come from poor research technique (Hanneman, Kposowa, & Riddle, 2013). Type I error is the opposite of the before mentioned its the incorrect rejection of a true null (Hanneman, Kposowa, & Riddle, 2013). Reference Hanneman, R. A., Kposowa, A. J., & Riddle, M. D. (2013). Basic statistics for social research. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass Spiegel , M. (1975 ). Theory and Problems of Probability and Statistics . New York , New York : McGraw-Hill Walker , Ian (2010 ). ...
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Comparing groups (Science vs. Myths)

In continual discussion of hypothesis groups are tested in similar way to a single subject (Hanneman, Kposowa, & Riddle, 2013). The assertion of groups in comparison to another group brings about several subjects of interest. These interest in groups stem from marketing managers targeting consumers based on character traits relevant to a product or service. Groups can be classified by a number of characteristics including but not limited to race, ethnicity, gender, or even age (Hanneman, Kposowa, & Riddle, 2013). The first chapter discussed how theories lead to hypothesis and hypothesis are tested to determine if they are true or not (Hanneman, Kposowa, & Riddle, 2013). Hypothesis are often developed by previous hypothesis as well (Hanneman, Kposowa, & Riddle, 2013). Theoretically there are several truths accepted in society with little or no empirical evidence. These beliefs held by the general public and convincing to human perception scientific criteria requires a ...
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Authority reasoning

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Chapter one opens with methods for acquiring knowledge is followed by science described as "to know" (Christense, Johnson, & Turner, 2014). The four methods for acquiring knowledge discussed in the text explains in part how we interact with each others as human beings. Authority is one way that knowledge is acquired by many of us employed by corporations, public and private companies. The same method is used for us that are part of any religious congregation, political party, or social club. I question research that suggest large groups of people independently reach conclusions through intuition, empiricism, or even rationalization. My hypothesis is that a majority of us look to authority to convince us in ideas that appeal to rationality, empiricism, and intuitive reasoning. Reference Christensen, L. B., Johnson, R., B., & Turner, L. A. (2014). Research methods, design, and analysis (12th ed.). Boston, MA: Allyn & Bacon. Words: 144
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Scientific Research

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Uniformity when researching a phenomena involves what some might consider as consistency throughout the variables. Academia agents posits rigorous standards for scientific researchers in the ability to weigh variables of quantitative studies (Christensen, Burke Johnson, & Turner, 2014). It is in this light some skeptics of qualitative research argue its validity, and call the practice speculative at best. Continual discussion of scientific research criteria sheds light for consistency in results to avoid conjecture and bias errors. Consistent studies provides baselines for all variables. Some experiments help create a natural condition to observe the phenomena in. Creating a phenomena outside its discovered habitat such as growing a plant indoors oppose to outside. In the scenario above one student discussed three common variables in plant growth being dirt, sun, and water. Discovering hidden variables can be extremely difficult to the point of impossible. Through research we ha...
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